Showing posts with label brian wargo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label brian wargo. Show all posts

Monday, November 17, 2008

Finally, a statistic that makes sense

The Las Vegas Sun's Brian Wargo reported over the weekend that the population of Clark County fell by 10,000 souls from July 07 to July 08. This, after decades of constant, nation-leading growth. Oddly, the Las Vegas Review-Journal chose not to cover this rather significant change of demographic pace.

More important to me, though, is that this proves I'm not (that) crazy after all. For the past year I've asked this very simple question: If thousands of new people are still moving here every month, then why would the housing market ever decline? Where would all those people be living? As the landlord of two properties in very different economic strata, I can tell you that rents aren't rising, either. And student enrollment has flattened, too, to 0.8 percent, fellow Petcaster Emily Richmond reported in September. Assuming that current residents are procreating at a rate that would lead to more than a 1 percent population increase a year on their own -- the CIA puts the U.S. live birth rate at 1.4 percent, in fact -- this had to mean people are not only not moving here but they're leaving, too.

Alas, some continue to spread the lie that 4-, 5- or even 6,000 people a month are moving here. Who are these evil-doers? Mostly, they're real estate agents. North American Realty of Nevada, for instances, said so in an Oct. 13 post here. (In fact, they say all 6,000 are moving to Henderson.) Realtor Brent Jenkins of Re/Max Central (left) on Oct. 23 also promulgated this lie, although he's more vague by claiming it's "3-5k people per month." But they're not alone. The City of Las Vegas' own official 2008 Community Profile uses the 5,000-a-month lie on page 49. Granted, they were using old data.

Get used to it, folks. It's not quite as promotional, but here's the truth: 833.33 people are leaving every month. And still, I can't find a parking space anywhere.